China polysilicon industry outlook report 2014-2020

According to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, China’s polysilicon production continued to increase from 2013 to 2019.

China’s polysilicon market accelerates reshuffle, market concentration increases

China’s polysilicon production capacity continued to increase in 2019, and the proportion of imports further declined.

The decline in energy consumption, silicon consumption, and equipment investment has driven down the cost of polysilicon. The domestic market has accelerated reshuffle and market concentration has increased.

1. China’s domestic polysilicon production capacity continues to increase, and the proportion of imports further declines

According to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, China’s polysilicon production continued to increase from 2013 to 2019.

In 2019, the output of polysilicon reached 342,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%. As of the end of 2019, there were 6 domestic polysilicon production companies with production of more than 10,000 tons, and their output was about 287,000 tons, accounting for 83.9% of the total output. With the increase of polysilicon production capacity in 2020, the output is expected to reach about 390,000 tons.

China polysilicon industry outlook report 2014-2020

China’s polysilicon production from 2013 to 2019

Although the scale of domestic polysilicon production capacity continues to expand, compared with its downstream silicon wafers, cells, modules and other fields, its global production share still has a large room for growth. This has made it difficult for domestic polysilicon production to meet downstream demand for a long time and has to rely on imports.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, domestic supply is still temporarily unable to meet domestic demand, and it is necessary to rely on imports. China imported 145,000 tons of polysilicon in 2019, and imported silicon materials accounted for 29.7%.

However, due to the continuous increase of new domestic production capacity, China’s dependence on imported polysilicon materials is showing a downward trend.

China polysilicon industry outlook report 2014-2020

China’s polysilicon imports and the proportion of imported silicon materials from 2014 to 2019

Note: In 2015, imported silicon materials accounted for 40.7%.

2. The comprehensive energy consumption of domestic polysilicon production further drops

The comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon includes the electricity, steam, water, etc. consumed in the production of polysilicon.

The division of various parts of the process of polysilicon production, the types of energy consumption, measurement and calculation methods shall be implemented in accordance with the “Energy Consumption Quota per Product of Polysilicon Enterprises” (GB29447-2012).

The average comprehensive energy consumption of Chinese polysilicon companies in 2019 is 12.5kgce/kg-Si. With technological progress and comprehensive utilization of energy, it is expected to drop to 10.1kgce/kg-Si by 2025.

3. The domestic polysilicon market accelerates the reshuffle and the market concentration increases

In terms of overseas production capacity, due to the decline in polysilicon prices, overseas high-cost photovoltaic polysilicon production capacity has gradually withdrawn.

OCI South Korea’s 50,000-ton production capacity has been confirmed to stop production and exit. Wacker Chemie announced in its 2019 financial report that it will no longer inject more investment and have carried out huge depreciation. It is expected to gradually shift to electronic grade and exit the market.

In terms of domestic production capacity, as of the end of 2019, the number of domestic polysilicon production companies had been reduced to 13, with a production capacity of 452,000 tons, which was an increase of 16.5% compared to the end of 2018. The production capacity of the top 5 enterprises in the industry accounted for 76.8% of the total production capacity. This continued to increase by 3.1 percentage points from 2018.

It is expected that in 2020, the domestic polysilicon production capacity will increase to 485,000 tons, the second and third tier production capacity will accelerate to 30,000 tons, and the industry concentration will continue to increase.

From the perspective of the shipment structure, CR7 rose from 65% in 2017 to 78% in 2019, and is expected to exceed 90% in 2021. Leading companies strengthen the industry’s oligopoly through stronger capacity expansion, lower electricity prices, scale and technological accumulation. In the medium term, it is more certain that there will be only 4-5 leading manufacturers in China.

Top polysilicon players in China:

GCL Poly

Yongxiang

Xinjinag Daqo New Energy

East Hope

Wacker

TBEA

OCI

China polysilicon industry outlook report 2014-2020

Analysis of the competitive landscape of Chinese polysilicon industry enterprises in 2019

Disclaimer: This is an article created by Michael Liang for Chinasdg.org. You can find the original article here: https://chinasdg.org/2020/07/26/china-polysilicon-industry-outlook-report-2014-2020/.

Leave a Reply

Please Login to Comment